* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/26/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 65 64 60 56 49 48 49 44 34 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 65 64 60 56 49 48 49 44 34 DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 67 66 63 59 56 55 57 58 50 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 13 14 12 13 3 7 14 22 26 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 -1 -1 0 2 1 6 0 -1 11 17 19 SHEAR DIR 307 317 297 297 296 284 306 311 242 196 200 201 224 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.5 25.3 16.4 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 121 118 115 112 116 120 123 114 78 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 101 99 97 94 92 97 103 111 105 75 77 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.9 -49.8 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 5 7 4 3 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 64 64 62 59 60 50 45 38 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 40 39 38 39 38 38 35 33 34 32 29 20 850 MB ENV VOR 75 54 50 52 49 23 12 27 52 90 146 126 110 200 MB DIV 33 20 14 15 7 43 -19 13 17 57 59 68 1 700-850 TADV 14 13 12 5 2 5 1 2 1 -10 6 -9 6 LAND (KM) 449 405 361 333 309 291 325 465 604 659 662 495 931 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.6 33.1 33.6 34.0 34.9 35.7 36.2 36.6 37.8 40.1 43.2 46.9 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.0 72.8 72.3 70.6 67.9 63.3 57.0 49.2 40.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 9 15 23 30 35 35 HEAT CONTENT 8 2 19 14 15 7 0 1 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -10. -13. -13. -16. -21. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -21. -22. -21. -26. -36. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 32.0 73.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 348.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.60 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 11.4% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.5% 3.7% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/26/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 67 65 64 60 56 49 48 49 44 34 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 67 65 64 60 56 49 48 49 44 34 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 63 59 55 48 47 48 43 33 DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 55 51 44 43 44 39 29 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT