* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 66 64 62 58 57 49 47 43 41 34 20 V (KT) LAND 70 68 66 64 62 58 57 49 47 43 41 34 20 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 66 64 63 61 60 58 56 56 56 52 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 18 18 15 16 11 13 4 14 28 37 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 -2 0 -1 0 3 7 8 16 19 19 SHEAR DIR 296 305 311 311 308 294 282 310 278 248 219 235 217 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.9 26.4 26.3 26.1 24.0 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 123 122 121 117 112 111 118 120 120 104 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 102 101 100 96 92 91 100 105 108 95 72 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -49.7 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 4 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 61 63 65 64 60 58 53 45 42 33 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 41 39 39 39 41 38 37 35 36 35 30 850 MB ENV VOR 69 67 47 40 50 33 22 23 53 77 129 164 124 200 MB DIV 34 34 27 24 17 11 19 1 19 28 59 29 -1 700-850 TADV 15 15 18 14 10 6 7 0 15 6 -5 41 -64 LAND (KM) 492 443 398 358 318 274 264 332 478 604 626 667 495 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.4 35.3 35.8 36.0 36.9 38.6 40.8 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.2 73.3 73.2 73.0 72.2 70.5 67.1 61.8 55.6 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 11 18 25 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 3 20 15 11 2 0 4 4 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -7. -9. -12. -11. -14. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -21. -23. -27. -29. -36. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 31.4 73.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 363.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.58 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 12.3% 10.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.7% 3.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/25/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 66 64 62 58 57 49 47 43 41 34 20 18HR AGO 70 69 67 65 63 59 58 50 48 44 42 35 21 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 62 58 57 49 47 43 41 34 20 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 54 53 45 43 39 37 30 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT