* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 71 70 68 65 61 59 53 53 49 49 44 V (KT) LAND 75 72 71 70 68 65 61 59 53 53 49 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 70 69 68 65 63 61 60 58 57 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 17 20 16 16 15 15 8 14 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 2 -1 -1 -2 3 6 11 7 12 SHEAR DIR 302 313 300 310 318 314 296 293 319 280 281 227 237 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 140 138 134 130 125 121 122 126 127 124 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 116 114 110 106 101 98 100 105 108 107 100 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -49.8 -49.7 -49.9 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 59 62 66 65 61 57 52 45 42 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 41 40 39 38 39 37 37 35 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 65 67 64 63 51 45 27 23 14 44 58 106 125 200 MB DIV 15 22 52 32 26 20 -10 11 8 10 11 32 18 700-850 TADV 14 20 11 14 19 7 5 6 4 15 12 6 14 LAND (KM) 597 544 492 440 391 311 270 283 325 457 575 655 747 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.9 31.4 32.0 32.5 33.5 34.3 34.9 35.5 36.2 36.9 37.7 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.3 72.9 72.3 70.7 67.9 64.1 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 6 10 14 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 10 6 3 1 17 19 15 17 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -9. -12. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -22. -22. -26. -26. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.3 73.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.12 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 438.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.51 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.1% 6.8% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.9% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/25/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 72 71 70 68 65 61 59 53 53 49 49 44 18HR AGO 75 74 73 72 70 67 63 61 55 55 51 51 46 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 68 65 61 59 53 53 49 49 44 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 60 56 54 48 48 44 44 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT