* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 84 85 84 78 73 67 63 59 52 48 44 V (KT) LAND 85 83 84 85 84 78 73 67 63 59 52 48 44 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 82 81 81 77 73 69 65 62 59 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 8 12 16 12 14 13 6 6 8 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 0 -1 0 -2 0 6 7 7 4 SHEAR DIR 257 311 337 317 300 323 306 290 309 304 286 224 223 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 143 140 137 132 126 121 120 125 131 129 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 119 116 114 109 103 97 97 103 110 111 102 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.8 -50.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 6 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 59 59 64 65 62 57 54 45 41 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 42 40 41 43 41 40 40 40 40 39 35 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 75 75 69 55 64 51 42 57 70 76 91 200 MB DIV 74 29 21 71 41 24 7 20 9 21 -7 24 26 700-850 TADV 6 12 15 13 11 13 5 9 3 2 16 4 -11 LAND (KM) 660 600 540 488 438 347 272 251 275 379 539 634 661 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.3 30.8 31.4 31.9 33.0 34.1 34.8 35.2 35.6 36.1 36.9 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 73.0 73.2 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.4 73.3 72.9 71.7 69.7 66.4 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 7 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 19 19 15 12 7 6 2 19 19 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -19. -24. -29. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -14. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -0. -1. -7. -12. -18. -22. -26. -33. -37. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.7 72.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 510.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.44 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/25/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 84 85 84 78 73 67 63 59 52 48 44 18HR AGO 85 84 85 86 85 79 74 68 64 60 53 49 45 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 81 75 70 64 60 56 49 45 41 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 68 63 57 53 49 42 38 34 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 55 49 45 41 34 30 26 IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 60 55 49 45 41 34 30 26 IN 12HR 85 83 84 75 69 65 60 54 50 46 39 35 31