* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 98 98 99 98 90 85 78 73 63 56 49 V (KT) LAND 95 95 98 98 99 98 90 85 78 73 63 56 49 V (KT) LGEM 95 94 93 94 93 90 85 78 71 66 62 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 11 9 9 12 14 12 14 10 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 1 3 4 -3 -1 0 9 12 18 SHEAR DIR 238 190 238 297 309 328 309 306 293 293 341 294 279 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 152 148 143 139 133 129 121 119 125 131 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 127 124 119 114 109 106 98 96 102 108 106 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -49.8 -49.7 -49.1 -49.3 -49.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 7 5 7 5 4 1 700-500 MB RH 61 61 56 55 56 58 63 63 62 60 57 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 44 42 43 45 43 44 43 44 41 38 35 850 MB ENV VOR 53 70 78 83 91 86 72 90 65 60 57 93 88 200 MB DIV 66 82 60 44 34 40 33 20 21 9 33 -7 34 700-850 TADV 14 9 4 12 15 17 20 10 5 5 13 26 18 LAND (KM) 734 726 660 599 540 446 369 282 232 259 356 510 599 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.0 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.8 32.7 33.7 34.6 35.1 35.2 35.7 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 73.0 73.1 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.4 73.6 73.6 73.1 72.0 70.2 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 27 19 19 16 12 13 15 6 21 24 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -22. -29. -35. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 1. 1. -0. -0. -5. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 3. 4. 3. -5. -10. -17. -22. -32. -39. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.4 72.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 544.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.41 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 14.2% 12.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 7.7% 5.2% 3.4% 1.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 7.4% 5.8% 3.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/24/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 98 98 99 98 90 85 78 73 63 56 49 18HR AGO 95 94 97 97 98 97 89 84 77 72 62 55 48 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 92 91 83 78 71 66 56 49 42 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 85 77 72 65 60 50 43 36 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 75 67 62 55 50 40 33 26 IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 76 68 63 56 51 41 34 27 IN 12HR 95 95 98 89 83 79 71 66 59 54 44 37 30