* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 101 103 106 106 103 96 92 85 76 64 55 V (KT) LAND 100 101 101 103 106 106 103 96 92 85 76 64 55 V (KT) LGEM 100 100 101 102 101 100 95 87 79 72 67 61 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 10 9 11 14 15 7 9 12 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -5 -5 1 2 4 -3 0 4 8 11 SHEAR DIR 231 253 242 202 206 319 303 305 302 299 321 334 320 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 159 155 151 146 139 134 131 127 121 124 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 136 131 127 121 114 109 107 103 97 100 104 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -50.1 -49.6 -49.7 -49.1 -49.5 -48.9 -49.6 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 60 59 61 55 54 56 61 63 64 59 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 42 46 46 48 47 47 46 44 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 56 73 78 89 85 76 78 67 57 51 77 200 MB DIV 65 46 53 70 60 50 54 33 11 15 -7 2 10 700-850 TADV 10 14 11 7 4 13 14 12 3 1 -2 10 10 LAND (KM) 702 742 732 737 674 574 490 419 347 291 260 324 444 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.5 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.4 33.2 33.9 34.8 35.0 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 72.6 72.8 72.9 73.0 73.1 73.0 73.0 73.2 73.3 73.2 72.4 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 42 31 22 14 21 25 16 9 6 4 23 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -21. -29. -35. -40. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 3. -4. -8. -15. -24. -36. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 26.6 72.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 510.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.44 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 13.4% 11.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 11.0% 7.2% 5.0% 2.4% 3.3% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 8.5% 6.5% 4.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/24/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 101 103 106 106 103 96 92 85 76 64 55 18HR AGO 100 99 99 101 104 104 101 94 90 83 74 62 53 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 101 101 98 91 87 80 71 59 50 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 93 93 90 83 79 72 63 51 42 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 81 78 71 67 60 51 39 30 IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 83 80 73 69 62 53 41 32 IN 12HR 100 101 101 92 86 82 79 72 68 61 52 40 31