* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 101 101 103 102 103 99 97 92 85 76 68 V (KT) LAND 100 99 101 101 103 102 103 99 97 92 85 76 68 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 100 100 99 96 93 90 83 77 72 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 14 12 10 9 10 14 6 5 7 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 0 -2 -3 0 5 3 -4 -2 6 8 SHEAR DIR 233 236 232 220 191 269 314 306 308 276 317 321 333 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 161 159 155 148 143 138 134 131 127 125 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 139 136 132 123 117 113 109 106 102 101 101 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -49.5 -49.0 -49.0 -48.8 -49.2 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 61 60 61 53 55 59 63 64 59 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 41 41 42 41 44 45 47 45 43 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 42 52 51 56 71 82 86 84 85 83 81 67 63 200 MB DIV 66 55 43 62 83 37 60 42 41 3 15 -13 26 700-850 TADV 18 12 18 12 7 7 17 19 17 6 -1 0 18 LAND (KM) 634 707 723 713 712 597 511 440 384 326 276 291 359 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.8 27.6 28.3 29.0 30.1 31.0 31.8 32.5 33.2 33.9 34.4 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 72.6 72.8 73.0 73.2 73.4 73.4 73.4 73.4 73.5 73.5 73.0 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 52 43 35 22 17 27 23 16 16 11 1 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -20. -27. -34. -39. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 7. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. -1. -3. -8. -15. -24. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 25.9 72.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.09 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 436.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.51 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 2.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 12.2% 10.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 5.8% 3.8% 2.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 6.1% 4.7% 3.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/23/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 101 101 103 102 103 99 97 92 85 76 68 18HR AGO 100 99 101 101 103 102 103 99 97 92 85 76 68 12HR AGO 100 97 96 96 98 97 98 94 92 87 80 71 63 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 91 92 88 86 81 74 65 57 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 81 77 75 70 63 54 46 IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 77 78 74 72 67 60 51 43 IN 12HR 100 99 101 92 86 82 83 79 77 72 65 56 48