* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/23/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 104 106 104 109 106 103 97 93 89 82 73 V (KT) LAND 105 103 104 106 104 109 106 103 97 93 89 82 73 V (KT) LGEM 105 103 102 102 102 102 101 96 89 80 74 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 10 13 10 5 12 11 19 10 11 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -2 3 -1 1 0 6 0 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 219 216 211 224 255 226 288 316 309 283 268 313 324 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 161 161 155 148 142 134 130 128 128 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 140 141 139 131 123 117 110 106 104 105 104 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.0 -50.3 -49.8 -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -49.0 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 64 66 64 60 62 56 58 57 64 63 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 40 41 39 44 44 46 46 48 47 45 42 850 MB ENV VOR 46 33 45 52 44 64 80 81 79 72 73 63 50 200 MB DIV 103 95 92 71 39 73 28 52 27 35 2 7 -21 700-850 TADV 10 14 13 13 14 6 12 9 15 12 2 -3 3 LAND (KM) 505 585 658 731 754 723 622 546 490 425 372 397 487 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.3 26.1 26.9 27.7 29.1 30.2 31.2 32.1 33.0 33.9 34.9 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 72.1 72.3 72.4 72.5 72.8 72.7 72.5 72.3 72.3 72.3 71.6 70.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 50 42 44 45 37 19 17 21 19 4 24 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -12. -21. -29. -36. -42. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 6. 6. 9. 9. 10. 8. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. -1. 4. 1. -2. -8. -12. -16. -23. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 24.4 71.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.52 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 442.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.50 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 12.9% 10.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.2% 4.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/23/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 104 106 104 109 106 103 97 93 89 82 73 18HR AGO 105 104 105 107 105 110 107 104 98 94 90 83 74 12HR AGO 105 102 101 103 101 106 103 100 94 90 86 79 70 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 98 95 92 86 82 78 71 62 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 91 88 85 79 75 71 64 55 IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 88 85 82 76 72 68 61 52 IN 12HR 105 103 104 95 89 85 82 79 73 69 65 58 49