* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 105 103 105 104 106 103 100 94 93 90 V (KT) LAND 110 108 106 105 103 105 104 106 103 100 94 93 90 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 106 104 102 99 99 98 95 90 84 77 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 19 21 20 15 10 8 14 19 20 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 1 -2 -1 0 0 6 3 -2 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 243 226 208 217 215 216 256 243 288 270 264 234 241 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 27.8 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 156 158 161 159 155 149 144 132 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 139 140 140 140 135 129 124 120 110 104 103 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.6 -49.8 -49.3 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 63 64 63 59 57 57 58 63 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 34 36 36 40 41 43 45 46 45 46 46 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 46 30 29 41 42 70 88 98 107 117 128 200 MB DIV 80 111 109 104 95 80 56 46 33 37 48 51 17 700-850 TADV 22 22 8 10 11 8 15 10 18 17 12 9 3 LAND (KM) 233 316 400 490 571 711 776 752 680 636 597 561 505 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.3 25.1 26.7 28.0 29.1 30.0 30.9 32.1 33.1 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.9 71.2 71.5 71.8 72.1 72.4 72.3 72.2 72.0 71.5 70.8 70.5 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 62 60 57 51 43 46 30 16 15 18 10 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -21. -29. -36. -42. -46. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -12. -6. -3. 0. 3. 5. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 15. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -5. -6. -4. -7. -10. -16. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.9 70.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.61 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 486.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.46 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 14.3% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 6.4% 4.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 7.1% 5.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/22/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 106 105 103 105 104 106 103 100 94 93 90 18HR AGO 110 109 107 106 104 106 105 107 104 101 95 94 91 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 103 105 104 106 103 100 94 93 90 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 98 100 99 101 98 95 89 88 85 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 93 92 94 91 88 82 81 78 IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 92 91 93 90 87 81 80 77 IN 12HR 110 108 106 97 91 87 86 88 85 82 76 75 72