* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 108 108 104 106 106 103 100 96 93 89 V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 108 108 104 106 106 103 100 96 93 89 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 108 106 104 100 99 98 95 91 86 79 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 12 16 19 13 14 8 13 13 23 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 8 3 2 0 0 -1 3 3 3 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 245 237 218 211 224 226 240 202 279 290 285 265 259 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 156 159 161 157 151 145 137 129 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 139 139 139 140 139 132 127 121 114 106 103 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -49.5 -49.6 -49.3 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 64 64 65 59 59 54 59 59 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 34 37 37 41 43 43 45 46 47 47 850 MB ENV VOR 47 32 47 52 38 35 39 58 77 87 105 111 132 200 MB DIV 68 81 108 102 96 105 51 53 28 49 21 59 33 700-850 TADV 15 19 21 8 11 10 14 10 16 17 24 12 13 LAND (KM) 160 234 311 400 484 625 762 787 721 673 648 624 610 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.4 24.2 25.7 27.3 28.6 29.6 30.6 31.5 32.4 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 70.8 71.2 71.5 71.8 72.2 72.4 72.3 71.9 71.3 70.7 70.2 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 60 64 62 60 55 43 43 22 15 16 15 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -12. -21. -28. -35. -41. -45. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -4. -1. 2. 4. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -2. -2. -6. -4. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.2 70.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.57 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 494.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.45 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 16.8% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 7.1% 4.6% 2.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 8.3% 6.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/22/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 107 108 108 104 106 106 103 100 96 93 89 18HR AGO 110 109 107 108 108 104 106 106 103 100 96 93 89 12HR AGO 110 107 106 107 107 103 105 105 102 99 95 92 88 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 100 96 98 98 95 92 88 85 81 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 87 89 89 86 83 79 76 72 IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 89 91 91 88 85 81 78 74 IN 12HR 110 109 107 98 92 88 90 90 87 84 80 77 73