* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 109 106 107 104 106 104 104 100 97 92 92 V (KT) LAND 110 110 109 106 107 104 106 104 104 100 97 92 92 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 109 107 105 101 100 99 96 92 86 79 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 15 13 16 17 10 9 9 12 16 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 9 8 5 -1 2 2 2 3 -1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 252 244 235 221 212 210 235 256 249 301 292 289 233 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 158 161 159 153 146 139 131 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 138 138 140 140 136 129 122 115 108 104 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.6 -49.3 -49.3 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 58 60 65 65 64 63 60 58 58 59 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 30 34 37 41 41 44 45 46 46 48 850 MB ENV VOR 60 44 31 45 48 32 37 35 65 84 105 123 127 200 MB DIV 77 72 64 91 99 81 101 72 48 28 24 45 57 700-850 TADV 8 10 19 22 13 11 10 12 5 7 10 14 10 LAND (KM) 120 188 255 333 411 576 716 778 749 691 656 623 602 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.8 23.5 25.1 26.7 28.1 29.3 30.3 31.3 32.3 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.5 70.9 71.3 71.6 72.0 72.3 72.3 71.9 71.4 70.8 70.3 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 55 65 69 68 63 44 46 33 21 18 15 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -12. -20. -27. -34. -40. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -8. -4. 0. 3. 6. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -3. -6. -4. -6. -6. -10. -13. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.8 70.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.58 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.52 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 547.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.40 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 17.5% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 7.1% 4.7% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.7% 1.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 8.8% 6.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/22/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 109 106 107 104 106 104 104 100 97 92 92 18HR AGO 110 109 108 105 106 103 105 103 103 99 96 91 91 12HR AGO 110 107 106 103 104 101 103 101 101 97 94 89 89 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 98 100 98 98 94 91 86 86 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 90 88 88 84 81 76 76 IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 88 90 88 88 84 81 76 76 IN 12HR 110 110 109 100 94 90 92 90 90 86 83 78 78