* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 103 100 98 98 97 99 98 95 93 90 90 V (KT) LAND 105 105 103 100 98 98 97 99 98 95 93 90 90 V (KT) LGEM 105 105 102 100 98 97 95 94 94 90 85 82 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 17 18 16 17 13 12 9 14 12 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 10 8 6 2 -1 1 -2 3 0 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 279 255 248 243 231 225 197 231 216 269 290 281 237 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 156 159 161 155 148 142 133 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 139 139 138 138 140 139 132 124 119 112 107 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -50.7 -50.6 -49.7 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 61 65 62 65 60 59 54 60 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 29 29 30 36 37 41 41 42 43 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 42 31 46 31 36 45 58 79 89 110 115 200 MB DIV 62 81 73 48 74 85 111 52 49 19 33 19 67 700-850 TADV 2 6 13 18 20 11 12 15 8 13 9 14 11 LAND (KM) 98 148 205 273 344 506 650 762 766 671 650 621 600 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.3 22.9 24.4 25.9 27.5 28.9 30.1 31.0 32.2 33.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.0 70.4 70.8 71.2 71.8 72.1 72.4 72.3 72.0 71.2 70.4 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 58 68 73 69 53 42 43 24 20 16 12 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. -0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -29. -35. -39. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -8. -11. -9. -5. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 5. 7. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 20.5 69.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 564.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.39 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 15.7% 12.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 2.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 6.5% 5.1% 3.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/21/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 103 100 98 98 97 99 98 95 93 90 90 18HR AGO 105 104 102 99 97 97 96 98 97 94 92 89 89 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 96 96 95 97 96 93 91 88 88 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 93 92 94 93 90 88 85 85 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 86 85 87 86 83 81 78 78 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 88 87 89 88 85 83 80 80 IN 12HR 105 105 103 94 88 84 83 85 84 81 79 76 76