* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 102 101 99 96 96 95 95 94 90 89 87 V (KT) LAND 100 102 102 101 99 96 96 95 95 94 90 89 87 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 101 99 96 95 93 90 89 86 83 81 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 10 16 17 19 17 15 12 11 13 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 10 12 10 4 1 3 1 1 3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 280 288 258 250 240 232 224 217 251 240 286 270 256 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 154 154 154 158 161 159 153 147 137 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 141 140 138 137 139 140 137 128 123 115 108 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -49.7 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 56 60 60 63 66 66 65 62 57 58 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 29 29 31 32 38 39 41 42 42 43 44 850 MB ENV VOR 44 58 67 46 40 58 42 54 54 70 80 100 121 200 MB DIV 22 73 73 58 58 83 92 92 55 26 31 41 44 700-850 TADV -1 2 2 9 13 8 12 10 13 6 11 9 13 LAND (KM) 78 93 131 199 266 411 561 692 768 718 651 598 594 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.6 22.2 23.5 25.0 26.5 28.1 29.4 30.4 31.7 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.4 70.0 70.5 70.9 71.5 72.1 72.4 72.4 72.3 71.9 71.2 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 48 49 56 66 70 64 45 47 34 21 19 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -5. -2. 1. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 10. 11. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -10. -11. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.9 68.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 562.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.39 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 17.5% 14.3% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 6.9% 5.5% 3.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/21/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 102 101 99 96 96 95 95 94 90 89 87 18HR AGO 100 99 99 98 96 93 93 92 92 91 87 86 84 12HR AGO 100 97 96 95 93 90 90 89 89 88 84 83 81 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 85 85 84 84 83 79 78 76 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 78 78 77 77 76 72 71 69 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 83 83 82 82 81 77 76 74 IN 12HR 100 102 102 93 87 83 83 82 82 81 77 76 74