* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 102 101 99 95 97 93 96 94 90 89 86 V (KT) LAND 100 101 102 101 99 95 97 93 96 94 90 89 86 V (KT) LGEM 100 101 101 100 98 95 93 92 91 90 87 83 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 14 13 11 15 15 19 12 16 7 15 12 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 8 10 3 1 0 3 0 5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 252 281 283 251 251 226 230 207 237 225 273 281 276 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 154 154 154 156 159 161 155 150 141 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 141 140 140 138 138 140 139 131 126 118 108 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -50.1 -50.4 -49.4 -49.6 -49.1 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 58 60 65 61 64 59 60 55 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 31 30 31 38 37 41 42 41 43 44 850 MB ENV VOR 48 48 59 69 53 45 44 44 58 74 88 100 117 200 MB DIV 19 22 62 42 41 101 85 99 36 51 20 51 22 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -3 6 16 7 10 13 7 15 12 21 LAND (KM) 89 81 93 143 205 355 506 660 792 781 692 620 575 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.0 21.6 23.0 24.4 26.0 27.6 28.9 30.0 31.3 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 68.8 69.4 69.9 70.4 71.1 71.8 72.1 72.1 72.0 71.8 71.3 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 50 51 57 69 75 55 42 33 20 17 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -4. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 7. 6. 11. 11. 9. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -3. -7. -4. -6. -10. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.4 68.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.11 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 649.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.30 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 17.0% 14.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 4.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 7.5% 5.9% 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/21/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 102 101 99 95 97 93 96 94 90 89 86 18HR AGO 100 99 100 99 97 93 95 91 94 92 88 87 84 12HR AGO 100 97 96 95 93 89 91 87 90 88 84 83 80 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 84 86 82 85 83 79 78 75 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 77 79 75 78 76 72 71 68 IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 80 82 78 81 79 75 74 71 IN 12HR 100 101 102 93 87 83 85 81 84 82 78 77 74