* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 97 99 99 97 97 93 96 93 93 88 88 V (KT) LAND 95 97 97 99 99 97 97 93 96 93 93 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 96 96 96 96 95 92 90 88 87 84 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 13 13 10 13 19 13 14 5 8 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 4 7 10 3 3 2 5 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 222 292 295 303 274 241 221 211 222 245 246 292 277 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 154 154 154 154 158 161 161 152 143 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 140 140 139 138 139 141 139 129 119 111 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.0 -49.5 -49.7 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 56 58 63 66 64 64 58 54 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 27 30 30 32 35 36 40 40 41 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 64 52 48 54 57 42 58 37 53 56 74 87 80 200 MB DIV 32 13 8 52 26 75 104 97 90 31 19 22 49 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 -2 0 18 12 12 9 8 7 9 16 LAND (KM) 61 86 84 103 133 257 411 557 692 757 685 590 548 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.5 28.0 29.7 30.9 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.1 68.7 69.2 69.8 70.7 71.4 72.0 72.4 72.5 72.4 72.2 71.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 53 53 54 57 61 78 69 48 48 37 24 19 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 11. 9. 10. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 2. -2. 1. -2. -2. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.9 67.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.78 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.15 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 614.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.34 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 17.8% 14.7% 11.4% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 12.5% 10.0% 8.4% 4.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.0% 2.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.1% 11.0% 9.0% 6.8% 4.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/21/17 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/21/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 97 97 99 99 97 97 93 96 93 93 88 88 18HR AGO 95 94 94 96 96 94 94 90 93 90 90 85 85 12HR AGO 95 92 91 93 93 91 91 87 90 87 87 82 82 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 83 83 79 82 79 79 74 74 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 74 70 73 70 70 65 65 IN 6HR 95 97 88 82 79 78 78 74 77 74 74 69 69 IN 12HR 95 97 97 88 82 78 78 74 77 74 74 69 69