* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 99 101 101 95 90 86 90 87 88 88 89 V (KT) LAND 95 97 99 101 101 95 90 86 90 87 88 88 89 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 97 97 96 94 91 89 88 85 84 83 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 9 12 16 18 21 19 15 11 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 8 6 1 -2 2 -1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 143 181 263 273 266 255 237 224 202 215 218 249 242 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 154 154 154 154 156 161 161 154 146 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 141 141 141 139 138 138 142 140 132 122 114 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.3 -50.0 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 52 56 59 65 64 65 59 59 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 29 29 28 30 31 37 37 39 40 43 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 47 47 55 45 51 44 38 51 65 84 87 200 MB DIV 49 21 -4 1 48 34 92 80 89 65 58 18 46 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 1 3 7 15 15 13 12 14 20 18 LAND (KM) 11 88 80 89 102 213 355 494 624 694 695 550 435 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.7 23.0 24.4 26.0 27.6 29.2 30.7 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.8 68.5 69.1 69.7 70.7 71.6 72.3 72.8 73.1 73.2 73.2 73.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 53 54 55 59 70 67 55 53 50 28 23 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -15. -19. -22. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -1. -0. 7. 6. 7. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 0. -5. -9. -5. -8. -7. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.6 67.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.17 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 674.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.28 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 18.2% 15.1% 11.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.7% 13.8% 10.5% 8.9% 2.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.5% 3.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 11.7% 9.4% 7.1% 4.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 97 99 101 101 95 90 86 90 87 88 88 89 18HR AGO 95 94 96 98 98 92 87 83 87 84 85 85 86 12HR AGO 95 92 91 93 93 87 82 78 82 79 80 80 81 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 79 74 70 74 71 72 72 73 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 70 65 61 65 62 63 63 64 IN 6HR 95 97 88 82 79 75 70 66 70 67 68 68 69 IN 12HR 95 97 99 90 84 80 75 71 75 72 73 73 74