* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 150 148 147 143 134 123 114 107 104 105 100 96 V (KT) LAND 150 150 148 123 131 122 111 102 95 92 93 88 84 V (KT) LGEM 150 148 142 118 124 118 115 111 108 106 101 95 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 6 1 12 8 9 12 16 16 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 0 4 6 9 5 1 0 6 10 SHEAR DIR 165 231 274 313 302 307 279 245 229 258 250 283 272 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 153 153 152 154 154 154 156 159 161 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 145 142 142 139 140 139 138 138 139 139 132 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -49.5 -49.3 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 57 58 54 58 63 65 65 65 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 30 33 30 32 32 34 37 41 46 46 45 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 47 51 64 56 59 51 66 50 69 58 57 200 MB DIV 77 46 39 26 23 30 66 85 105 65 120 49 47 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 4 3 5 6 17 10 18 18 14 18 LAND (KM) 202 104 11 -16 34 68 100 225 377 543 673 763 732 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.8 23.2 24.7 26.2 27.7 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.3 65.1 65.9 66.6 67.3 68.7 69.8 70.6 71.1 71.6 72.2 72.4 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 68 57 30 80 57 59 62 74 74 51 43 35 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -12. -22. -35. -49. -61. -71. -78. -82. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -1. -2. -0. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -7. -16. -27. -36. -43. -46. -45. -50. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 17.0 64.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 150.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 828.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.13 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 5.8% 4.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 150 150 148 123 131 122 111 102 95 92 93 88 84 18HR AGO 150 149 147 122 130 121 110 101 94 91 92 87 83 12HR AGO 150 147 146 121 129 120 109 100 93 90 91 86 82 6HR AGO 150 144 141 140 148 139 128 119 112 109 110 105 101 NOW 150 141 135 132 131 122 111 102 95 92 93 88 84 IN 6HR 150 150 141 135 132 125 114 105 98 95 96 91 87 IN 12HR 150 150 148 139 133 129 118 109 102 99 100 95 91