* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 145 147 146 144 142 137 128 118 110 102 101 100 100 V (KT) LAND 145 147 146 128 132 127 119 108 100 92 91 90 90 V (KT) LGEM 145 144 140 134 110 119 116 114 110 105 99 96 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 6 7 4 6 11 8 15 12 18 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 0 -3 1 6 7 8 6 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 110 146 234 298 348 288 313 255 240 233 224 245 285 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 154 152 152 154 154 154 155 160 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 148 145 142 140 141 139 139 139 142 138 135 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.0 -50.2 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 57 57 55 58 61 67 68 69 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 28 28 29 29 31 31 34 35 39 41 44 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 50 47 48 57 59 48 53 48 53 56 58 200 MB DIV 105 84 35 23 19 -2 64 69 86 97 135 74 66 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 -3 3 10 18 15 19 21 13 LAND (KM) 289 187 86 -5 0 88 76 150 266 428 586 722 740 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.3 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.7 25.5 27.0 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.4 65.2 65.9 66.7 68.0 69.3 70.3 71.2 71.9 72.6 72.8 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 65 68 67 7 13 59 59 65 67 63 48 48 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -9. -18. -30. -44. -56. -65. -72. -76. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -3. -8. -17. -27. -35. -43. -44. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 16.6 63.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 145.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 809.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.15 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 5.9% 3.9% 1.5% 0.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.4% 3.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 3.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 145 147 146 128 132 127 119 108 100 92 91 90 90 18HR AGO 145 144 143 125 129 124 116 105 97 89 88 87 87 12HR AGO 145 142 141 123 127 122 114 103 95 87 86 85 85 6HR AGO 145 139 136 135 139 134 126 115 107 99 98 97 97 NOW 145 136 130 127 126 121 113 102 94 86 85 84 84 IN 6HR 145 147 138 132 129 124 116 105 97 89 88 87 87 IN 12HR 145 147 146 137 131 127 119 108 100 92 91 90 90