* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 140 141 140 140 135 129 121 112 107 103 105 100 V (KT) LAND 140 140 141 140 140 125 118 111 101 97 93 95 90 V (KT) LGEM 140 137 133 130 127 115 114 113 109 103 97 92 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 5 6 1 8 8 9 10 17 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 5 3 2 1 6 5 11 9 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 140 69 267 293 324 314 320 290 264 232 250 242 267 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 156 154 152 152 156 156 154 155 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 148 147 145 141 140 143 141 137 137 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 58 57 57 56 58 63 66 67 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 31 30 32 34 34 37 39 43 43 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 40 47 43 54 55 58 56 67 46 72 64 200 MB DIV 87 106 69 27 21 6 37 35 72 80 102 117 67 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 3 0 1 1 5 18 15 21 13 11 LAND (KM) 400 310 220 126 32 33 73 89 200 344 484 615 722 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.8 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.9 24.2 25.6 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.7 63.4 64.1 64.9 65.6 67.1 68.5 69.8 70.9 71.6 71.8 72.2 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 63 65 69 31 66 55 60 64 66 64 60 42 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -26. -39. -50. -59. -66. -70. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 8. 10. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 0. 0. -5. -11. -19. -28. -33. -37. -35. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 16.1 62.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 140.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 744.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.21 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 3.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/19/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 140 141 140 140 125 118 111 101 97 93 95 90 18HR AGO 140 139 140 139 139 124 117 110 100 96 92 94 89 12HR AGO 140 137 136 135 135 120 113 106 96 92 88 90 85 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 130 115 108 101 91 87 83 85 80 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 106 99 92 82 78 74 76 71 IN 6HR 140 140 131 125 122 129 122 115 105 101 97 99 94 IN 12HR 140 140 141 132 126 122 115 108 98 94 90 92 87