* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 147 147 144 142 137 128 124 115 106 101 100 101 V (KT) LAND 140 147 147 144 142 137 122 118 109 100 95 94 95 V (KT) LGEM 140 148 147 144 139 132 119 115 110 107 103 99 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 5 3 7 6 10 6 9 11 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 1 1 5 1 3 5 7 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 72 77 91 70 99 330 23 314 301 267 226 249 248 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 156 154 153 152 154 156 154 156 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 150 149 146 145 143 140 140 142 139 140 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.2 -50.4 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 62 60 59 61 58 62 63 65 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 29 29 30 33 31 32 33 34 37 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 28 36 37 48 60 56 65 53 76 57 68 200 MB DIV 102 106 73 87 62 40 9 42 77 78 85 63 102 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 2 4 4 2 3 12 16 18 9 LAND (KM) 500 500 409 326 244 62 22 93 83 179 306 444 596 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.4 22.6 24.1 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.9 62.6 63.3 63.9 65.4 66.9 68.3 69.6 70.8 72.0 72.7 73.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 58 60 63 68 67 39 56 58 67 63 53 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -25. -38. -49. -58. -64. -69. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 6. 4. -0. -3. -6. -5. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 5. 4. 6. 9. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 7. 4. 2. -3. -12. -16. -25. -34. -39. -40. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 15.3 61.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 140.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 689.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.26 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 52.8% 50.7% 40.9% 26.3% 24.1% 16.0% 4.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 9.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.9% 17.1% 13.8% 8.8% 8.0% 5.3% 1.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 147 147 144 142 137 122 118 109 100 95 94 95 18HR AGO 140 139 139 136 134 129 114 110 101 92 87 86 87 12HR AGO 140 137 136 133 131 126 111 107 98 89 84 83 84 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 128 123 108 104 95 86 81 80 81 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 116 101 97 88 79 74 73 74 IN 6HR 140 147 138 132 129 126 111 107 98 89 84 83 84 IN 12HR 140 147 147 138 132 128 113 109 100 91 86 85 86