* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 91 96 99 103 106 108 108 105 101 98 97 V (KT) LAND 80 85 91 96 99 103 106 95 101 98 94 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 80 86 90 94 98 104 109 97 102 103 101 99 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 1 2 3 3 6 5 8 10 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 2 5 6 4 5 3 3 7 8 8 4 SHEAR DIR 247 230 64 121 216 85 277 7 340 320 283 278 246 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 161 161 159 156 156 156 157 157 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 153 155 154 151 146 147 145 142 142 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 64 65 61 62 63 61 64 59 63 66 71 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 25 26 27 30 32 34 34 34 36 39 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 19 25 28 40 46 56 62 65 67 67 64 200 MB DIV 68 75 96 59 54 95 53 44 25 85 62 103 76 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 4 5 4 7 14 18 12 LAND (KM) 455 454 469 511 490 316 157 -11 76 45 66 178 315 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.4 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 59.8 60.5 61.2 61.9 63.3 64.6 66.1 67.8 69.1 69.9 70.9 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 62 60 63 83 57 66 62 82 54 55 62 71 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 9. 9. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 25. 21. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.4 59.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 17.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 30.1 to 2.9 1.00 8.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.42 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.40 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.47 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 355.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.59 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 12.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.8% 55.0% 48.5% 36.7% 35.4% 35.7% 33.3% 0.0% Logistic: 27.1% 51.2% 37.4% 25.7% 19.7% 34.6% 11.9% 5.8% Bayesian: 37.4% 76.3% 61.9% 43.5% 12.6% 20.6% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 31.8% 60.8% 49.3% 35.3% 22.6% 30.3% 15.6% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 85 91 96 99 103 106 95 101 98 94 91 90 18HR AGO 80 79 85 90 93 97 100 89 95 92 88 85 84 12HR AGO 80 77 76 81 84 88 91 80 86 83 79 76 75 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 73 77 80 69 75 72 68 65 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 85 76 70 67 67 70 59 65 62 58 55 54 IN 12HR 80 85 91 82 76 72 75 64 70 67 63 60 59