* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 86 90 92 96 95 98 98 95 91 89 87 V (KT) LAND 75 80 86 90 92 96 95 98 85 88 83 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 88 92 96 100 102 89 90 90 91 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 1 2 2 6 1 10 8 11 8 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 3 6 4 6 1 -3 4 3 8 4 SHEAR DIR 250 294 272 124 172 276 244 306 327 317 275 273 258 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 158 159 161 159 157 156 156 156 157 158 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 153 153 154 150 148 145 144 144 145 145 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 64 63 65 63 64 64 66 68 66 71 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 25 24 24 26 26 30 31 32 31 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 13 22 24 27 45 48 58 59 74 67 81 200 MB DIV 60 72 81 101 60 57 68 40 34 56 106 79 79 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 -2 -2 2 3 5 1 2 6 16 13 LAND (KM) 482 463 466 493 533 420 256 104 -11 57 24 84 211 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.8 59.7 60.4 61.1 62.4 63.7 65.0 66.4 67.8 69.1 70.3 71.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 69 62 60 62 15 62 72 34 83 55 44 65 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 6. 7. 7. 5. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 17. 21. 20. 23. 23. 20. 16. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.0 58.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 17.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.97 8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 8.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.45 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 344.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.60 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 5.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 9.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 13.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.5% 57.1% 51.1% 39.9% 36.5% 38.4% 36.0% 34.5% Logistic: 34.3% 60.7% 47.6% 36.5% 26.5% 35.8% 20.9% 12.7% Bayesian: 30.1% 73.8% 59.9% 34.6% 13.0% 12.5% 5.6% 1.2% Consensus: 32.7% 63.9% 52.9% 37.0% 25.3% 28.9% 20.8% 16.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 86 90 92 96 95 98 85 88 83 81 79 18HR AGO 75 74 80 84 86 90 89 92 79 82 77 75 73 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 77 81 80 83 70 73 68 66 64 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 71 70 73 60 63 58 56 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 86 77 71 67 66 69 56 59 54 52 50