* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 76 79 81 86 89 92 91 92 84 84 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 76 79 81 86 89 92 78 87 80 79 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 74 76 81 89 96 100 86 96 94 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 6 4 3 4 4 5 10 8 9 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 9 9 6 3 5 6 5 1 7 6 8 SHEAR DIR 246 249 289 330 314 271 346 280 331 341 317 281 277 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 157 159 161 159 157 158 157 157 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 151 151 153 153 149 148 148 147 144 143 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -50.8 -51.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 63 63 66 65 66 64 65 66 68 70 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 22 22 25 27 29 29 30 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 15 14 17 24 33 46 61 67 72 70 65 200 MB DIV 67 50 76 89 89 26 95 39 66 32 81 74 115 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 -2 -3 0 3 6 3 3 6 10 14 LAND (KM) 534 485 456 457 474 522 376 217 59 -10 10 11 64 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.9 58.8 59.5 60.2 61.6 62.9 64.2 65.7 67.1 68.4 69.4 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 62 69 64 60 62 50 64 70 71 83 83 27 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 7. 8. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 21. 24. 27. 26. 27. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.6 57.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 7.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.41 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.53 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 316.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 9.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 54.5% 44.7% 33.3% 26.4% 40.2% 37.5% 40.3% Logistic: 16.4% 45.8% 32.4% 21.3% 14.9% 23.3% 8.5% 5.4% Bayesian: 4.8% 15.6% 8.6% 2.5% 1.3% 4.5% 0.7% 1.2% Consensus: 15.1% 38.7% 28.6% 19.1% 14.2% 22.7% 15.6% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 72 76 79 81 86 89 92 78 87 80 79 18HR AGO 65 64 68 72 75 77 82 85 88 74 83 76 75 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 68 70 75 78 81 67 76 69 68 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 60 65 68 71 57 66 59 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT