* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 70 75 82 87 93 92 97 95 92 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 70 75 82 87 93 81 87 85 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 66 69 76 86 97 106 96 99 101 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 5 7 7 5 6 3 6 2 9 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 7 6 6 1 2 2 6 5 4 9 10 SHEAR DIR 245 265 251 258 332 26 8 38 345 17 323 300 279 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 155 157 158 159 159 158 156 156 156 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 151 152 153 153 152 149 149 147 144 144 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 60 61 60 62 60 61 60 61 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 22 24 24 26 27 30 28 32 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 3 10 13 12 13 18 29 44 43 64 54 66 67 200 MB DIV 61 82 75 62 78 39 51 36 53 41 31 61 87 700-850 TADV 5 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 0 3 3 0 5 4 17 LAND (KM) 639 574 528 497 487 533 462 301 116 -13 62 10 -4 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 56.7 57.6 58.5 59.4 60.9 62.0 63.4 65.0 66.5 67.8 69.1 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 9 8 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 59 68 62 60 47 62 68 51 83 55 23 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 7. 4. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 27. 32. 38. 37. 42. 40. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.3 55.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.48 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 314.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 54.5% 41.9% 26.2% 15.5% 43.8% 38.4% 42.1% Logistic: 16.0% 43.1% 28.7% 18.4% 14.3% 25.4% 12.7% 11.6% Bayesian: 5.9% 13.8% 9.5% 2.0% 0.9% 2.1% 1.4% 2.5% Consensus: 13.4% 37.1% 26.7% 15.6% 10.2% 23.8% 17.5% 18.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 66 70 75 82 87 93 81 87 85 66 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 65 70 77 82 88 76 82 80 61 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 63 70 75 81 69 75 73 54 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 54 61 66 72 60 66 64 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT