* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 72 76 82 88 94 97 100 97 97 92 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 72 76 82 88 94 97 100 90 89 84 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 72 77 86 96 107 115 114 102 100 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 2 2 7 10 7 5 5 10 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 10 5 -1 0 4 4 3 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 236 255 325 310 328 23 21 29 304 360 321 330 270 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 155 156 158 159 159 158 156 156 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 158 151 151 152 152 151 150 149 147 145 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 62 62 62 63 61 61 61 60 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 22 23 24 26 27 30 28 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 14 6 9 15 15 14 28 32 35 45 50 48 46 200 MB DIV 75 67 72 79 92 60 25 61 36 42 23 74 54 700-850 TADV 5 6 1 0 0 -4 -2 2 3 0 -2 0 10 LAND (KM) 745 664 579 532 502 495 552 396 235 53 11 67 66 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.3 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.4 56.5 57.3 58.2 59.8 61.2 62.6 64.0 65.5 67.1 68.3 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 49 49 57 67 65 61 30 63 70 68 26 54 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 39.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 8. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 21. 27. 33. 39. 42. 45. 42. 42. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.8 54.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 17.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 4.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 312.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 5.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 7.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 58.7% 48.9% 35.0% 22.1% 45.4% 37.9% 41.3% Logistic: 25.3% 58.2% 41.7% 32.1% 29.8% 37.2% 18.1% 17.5% Bayesian: 26.4% 34.0% 25.4% 10.0% 5.9% 12.5% 2.5% 2.4% Consensus: 24.7% 50.3% 38.7% 25.7% 19.3% 31.7% 19.5% 20.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 66 72 76 82 88 94 97 100 90 89 84 18HR AGO 55 54 59 65 69 75 81 87 90 93 83 82 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 61 67 73 79 82 85 75 74 69 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 55 61 67 70 73 63 62 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT