* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152017 09/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 60 70 76 85 90 93 96 97 95 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 60 70 76 85 90 93 96 80 85 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 56 61 71 78 87 96 104 105 87 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 6 8 7 9 6 8 8 9 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 1 4 0 2 3 0 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 129 175 233 261 306 332 357 4 357 299 344 295 314 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 155 153 156 158 159 159 158 156 156 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 165 159 154 151 151 152 150 150 149 147 146 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 60 61 62 62 61 61 60 61 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 20 24 24 26 27 28 29 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 39 21 14 11 10 6 11 5 16 25 32 33 40 200 MB DIV 53 72 97 71 78 75 77 30 57 38 57 25 83 700-850 TADV -1 3 5 7 2 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 1 6 LAND (KM) 765 773 755 671 594 508 498 555 432 265 80 -22 3 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 53.1 54.4 55.4 56.4 58.1 59.7 61.1 62.2 63.6 65.2 66.8 68.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 10 10 8 8 6 7 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 48 49 49 56 66 60 38 60 72 66 83 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 20. 30. 36. 45. 50. 53. 56. 57. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.2 51.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.82 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.49 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 249.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 47.8% 32.5% 15.8% 9.6% 24.8% 33.9% 40.4% Logistic: 18.7% 55.2% 36.7% 27.9% 26.9% 37.0% 13.1% 13.2% Bayesian: 6.0% 25.7% 14.8% 14.0% 2.7% 6.2% 1.9% 0.8% Consensus: 12.0% 42.9% 28.0% 19.2% 13.0% 22.7% 16.3% 18.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 FIFTEEN 09/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 50 56 60 70 76 85 90 93 96 80 85 18HR AGO 40 39 44 50 54 64 70 79 84 87 90 74 79 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 46 56 62 71 76 79 82 66 71 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 44 50 59 64 67 70 54 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT