* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 62 59 58 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 62 59 58 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 61 58 52 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 14 16 23 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 6 14 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 206 215 152 166 158 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.7 19.8 17.2 15.1 11.4 7.3 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 82 77 74 70 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 76 72 71 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -55.1 -53.7 -52.0 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 3.7 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 52 55 58 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 39 39 38 38 41 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 183 180 201 280 299 293 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 50 50 48 58 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -5 19 -6 -17 -56 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 931 946 1003 1044 1139 1326 1532 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.8 43.6 45.4 48.1 50.7 55.4 59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 41.9 40.1 38.8 37.5 35.8 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 22 25 28 26 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 15 CX,CY: 11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -27. -30. -33. -35. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -6. -7. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 41.8 43.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 66.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 253.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 62 59 58 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 18HR AGO 65 64 64 61 58 57 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 55 54 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 51 41 39 37 35 33 31 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT