* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 61 58 55 52 43 30 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 61 58 55 52 43 30 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 60 58 56 49 41 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 10 12 20 12 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 0 7 15 0 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 194 190 153 156 179 143 218 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 21.8 20.4 17.0 15.2 8.1 7.3 8.4 4.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 88 84 77 74 68 67 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 78 77 73 71 67 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -55.1 -52.1 -49.9 -48.2 -48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3 4.2 4.0 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 54 56 53 38 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 40 39 38 37 41 41 34 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 183 183 191 211 277 309 296 300 409 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 40 48 48 47 47 34 -69 -210 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -11 -5 -13 -43 -25 -38 -12 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 898 898 925 957 1044 1238 1317 1443 1337 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.9 42.0 43.1 45.6 48.0 53.4 57.1 61.6 67.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.3 43.9 42.5 40.6 38.8 36.9 36.3 34.2 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 22 28 27 23 21 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 860 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -26. -30. -33. -35. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -2. -4. -13. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 20. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -22. -35. -37. -37. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 40.9 45.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 81.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 265.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 61 58 55 52 43 30 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 58 55 52 43 30 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 53 50 41 28 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 49 46 37 24 22 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT