* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 62 59 51 46 38 23 21 20 19 19 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 62 59 51 46 38 23 21 20 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 60 59 56 50 43 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 4 7 6 8 12 31 8 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -1 2 15 2 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 241 197 179 145 144 128 158 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 22.7 21.8 19.3 16.2 11.2 8.0 8.9 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 91 88 81 75 69 68 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 78 78 75 71 68 66 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.9 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 -53.6 -52.2 -50.5 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.3 -0.1 3.7 3.2 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 55 59 58 61 36 37 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 43 40 39 37 35 37 33 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 194 177 185 197 230 299 287 258 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 12 44 51 49 29 38 48 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -12 -8 -15 -29 -174 -13 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 904 883 878 885 930 1091 1275 1538 1363 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.7 41.6 42.5 44.4 46.3 51.2 55.5 59.8 64.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.5 44.6 43.7 42.2 40.7 38.3 36.6 32.9 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 17 22 24 24 23 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -26. -29. -33. -35. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -10. -17. -31. -32. -33. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. 17. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -19. -27. -42. -44. -45. -46. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 40.7 45.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 77.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 268.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 62 59 51 46 38 23 21 20 19 19 18HR AGO 65 64 63 62 59 51 46 38 23 21 20 19 19 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 57 49 44 36 21 19 18 17 17 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 44 39 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT