* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 66 65 61 64 53 39 38 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 66 65 61 64 53 39 38 38 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 66 64 63 63 60 51 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 11 5 7 4 10 24 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 10 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 235 227 213 207 151 136 156 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.2 22.7 21.2 19.4 14.6 8.3 8.5 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 93 91 86 81 73 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 79 79 77 74 70 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.5 -56.1 -56.8 -56.6 -55.3 -53.8 -51.6 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.2 2.8 4.2 2.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 60 62 61 57 39 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 44 42 40 39 38 48 41 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 185 183 178 161 178 277 306 284 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 35 25 54 53 42 46 47 -86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -11 -9 -2 -36 -72 -55 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 940 916 901 895 923 1033 1242 1439 1526 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.1 40.9 41.6 43.0 44.4 48.9 54.1 58.2 61.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.8 45.0 44.3 43.0 41.7 38.9 37.1 34.7 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 13 17 21 25 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. -41. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. 0. -9. -22. -23. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -6. -17. -31. -32. -32. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 40.1 45.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 83.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 269.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 67 66 65 61 64 53 39 38 38 37 37 18HR AGO 70 69 67 66 65 61 64 53 39 38 38 37 37 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 60 63 52 38 37 37 36 36 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 55 58 47 33 32 32 31 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT