* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 66 65 61 60 57 45 44 43 42 40 V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 66 65 61 60 57 45 44 43 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 70 67 66 64 63 63 63 57 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 17 11 6 7 3 14 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 3 16 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 234 235 227 225 182 181 104 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.7 23.4 22.5 21.7 17.1 10.5 8.3 8.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 94 90 88 77 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 80 80 79 79 72 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 -54.5 -53.6 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.2 -0.4 3.7 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 55 58 62 67 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 46 45 42 41 38 42 44 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 194 192 196 181 163 194 292 327 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 36 38 44 64 66 11 50 -101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -4 -7 7 3 -91 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 999 982 970 956 959 1030 1222 1375 1432 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.0 40.5 41.5 42.5 46.2 51.6 56.6 61.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.9 45.3 44.6 43.6 42.5 39.4 36.5 35.2 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 10 13 18 25 27 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -21. -26. -31. -36. -38. -39. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -8. -7. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -10. -13. -25. -26. -27. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 39.4 45.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 77.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 67 66 65 61 60 57 45 44 43 42 40 18HR AGO 70 69 68 67 66 62 61 58 46 45 44 43 41 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 60 59 56 44 43 42 41 39 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 55 54 51 39 38 37 36 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT