* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 71 69 68 65 59 53 53 40 22 21 21 V (KT) LAND 75 73 71 69 68 65 59 53 53 40 22 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 75 73 71 68 67 65 63 62 57 47 43 DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 24 19 16 8 8 11 14 26 12 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 19 7 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 234 233 231 227 238 152 177 137 183 189 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.7 22.2 17.2 11.8 8.3 8.9 8.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 96 95 95 90 77 71 69 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 82 81 80 81 80 72 69 67 66 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -53.3 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 -56.4 -55.9 -53.4 -52.2 -51.2 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.4 -0.4 3.5 3.4 2.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 55 54 55 54 51 47 43 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 50 49 49 48 45 43 39 38 45 37 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 200 199 203 200 205 177 186 309 328 262 282 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 41 37 23 32 58 53 14 63 -50 -199 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -17 -2 0 0 -1 -3 1 17 -52 1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 941 950 963 960 961 937 948 1118 1376 1535 1371 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.8 40.1 41.9 45.7 50.7 56.2 60.9 64.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.3 46.7 46.0 45.4 43.4 40.7 37.8 35.1 33.2 32.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 9 17 24 28 26 21 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -15. -22. -28. -33. -38. -42. -45. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -17. -10. -21. -36. -37. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -16. -22. -22. -35. -53. -54. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 39.1 48.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 86.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 224.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 3( 12) 2( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 71 69 68 65 59 53 53 40 22 21 21 18HR AGO 75 74 72 70 69 66 60 54 54 41 23 22 22 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 68 65 59 53 53 40 22 21 21 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 61 55 49 49 36 18 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT