* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 66 64 61 56 50 47 39 28 27 26 V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 66 64 61 56 50 47 39 28 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 69 66 64 62 62 61 59 52 47 DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 20 23 18 12 4 9 14 22 27 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -4 -1 0 -2 7 20 6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 228 239 248 238 253 206 163 182 139 207 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.8 23.7 22.9 20.1 15.8 9.5 8.5 9.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 96 94 94 92 82 74 69 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 80 79 79 80 75 70 67 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.4 -53.4 -54.6 -55.0 -56.4 -56.6 -55.7 -52.8 -51.2 -49.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.3 -0.3 4.2 3.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 57 59 57 57 58 59 57 54 39 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 50 49 48 47 45 43 39 38 42 42 35 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 191 191 188 184 190 171 163 213 287 279 258 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 9 45 34 25 43 47 45 3 33 -88 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -16 -3 -3 -1 1 -2 -22 -27 -78 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 886 902 922 925 930 898 899 1002 1240 1425 1391 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.9 40.1 41.4 43.9 47.7 52.4 57.4 62.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.7 47.9 47.2 46.6 46.0 44.6 42.3 39.4 36.5 34.6 34.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 7 12 18 24 25 26 25 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -16. -22. -27. -33. -38. -42. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -19. -15. -15. -25. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -19. -25. -28. -35. -46. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 39.4 48.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 90.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 214.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 72 68 66 64 61 56 50 47 39 28 27 26 18HR AGO 75 74 70 68 66 63 58 52 49 41 30 29 28 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 67 64 59 53 50 42 31 30 29 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 60 55 49 46 38 27 26 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT