* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 69 67 63 59 55 46 31 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 69 67 63 59 55 46 31 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 76 73 68 65 61 61 61 57 49 43 40 39 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 31 21 20 18 8 11 11 15 25 27 18 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 0 -4 0 19 17 4 8 22 SHEAR DIR 219 227 226 239 252 249 214 182 156 176 143 214 193 SST (C) 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.4 21.9 17.0 13.0 8.2 8.5 9.2 5.9 POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 97 96 96 93 88 75 71 68 67 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 83 81 80 80 80 78 71 68 66 66 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.6 -53.7 -54.7 -55.8 -56.4 -55.9 -53.8 -51.6 -50.7 -49.0 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 2.0 2.8 2.5 2.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 -0.4 0.3 3.5 2.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 50 57 59 56 58 57 57 55 48 34 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 49 50 49 48 47 44 41 39 37 33 30 26 15 850 MB ENV VOR 178 185 188 185 182 178 169 178 265 278 255 259 263 200 MB DIV 82 9 20 42 37 36 51 68 20 43 37 -146 -156 700-850 TADV -17 -7 -15 -5 -2 1 -3 -4 -39 32 -49 1 5 LAND (KM) 854 868 886 907 930 912 877 904 1062 1292 1460 1408 1316 LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.7 39.7 40.6 42.4 45.7 50.0 54.5 58.9 62.9 66.6 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 48.9 48.1 47.4 46.8 45.5 43.8 41.3 38.5 36.3 34.7 33.2 31.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 6 9 15 21 23 23 21 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -27. -32. -37. -41. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -25. -30. -36. -48. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -29. -44. -56. -64. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 39.4 49.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 88.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 245.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 72 69 67 63 59 55 46 31 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 72 69 67 63 59 55 46 31 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 66 62 58 54 45 30 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 59 55 51 42 27 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT