* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 72 70 67 63 61 59 55 47 42 26 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 75 72 70 67 63 61 59 55 47 42 26 DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 77 74 69 64 58 58 62 63 59 53 45 40 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 42 32 23 22 14 9 8 11 20 32 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -2 -3 6 17 3 12 6 SHEAR DIR 227 223 234 232 242 256 236 234 166 168 136 188 194 SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.3 23.8 23.5 21.6 16.3 10.0 8.7 9.2 9.0 POT. INT. (KT) 108 104 100 98 98 94 94 88 75 70 69 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 87 84 82 81 79 80 79 71 69 67 64 62 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.9 -54.0 -55.3 -56.3 -56.2 -55.4 -53.0 -53.5 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 -0.6 3.1 3.4 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 46 53 58 59 56 56 55 53 55 45 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 45 48 49 49 47 45 42 39 38 39 41 33 20 850 MB ENV VOR 152 171 173 180 175 181 179 162 205 277 281 262 245 200 MB DIV 115 93 1 16 49 35 43 52 57 3 69 -91 -127 700-850 TADV -15 -19 -6 -13 -4 0 -4 7 4 -32 -60 3 -28 LAND (KM) 890 893 906 932 960 963 967 933 980 1203 1466 1509 1417 LAT (DEG N) 38.9 39.1 39.3 39.3 39.3 39.8 40.4 42.6 46.7 52.0 57.9 61.9 64.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 49.5 48.4 47.7 47.0 45.9 44.8 42.8 39.9 36.9 34.1 32.3 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 7 5 5 5 9 18 25 29 25 16 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -25. -30. -35. -39. -42. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -10. -13. -12. -10. -21. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -20. -28. -33. -49. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 38.9 50.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 88.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 263.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 72 70 67 63 61 59 55 47 42 26 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 71 69 66 62 60 58 54 46 41 25 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 66 62 60 58 54 46 41 25 DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 58 56 54 50 42 37 21 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT