* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 56 56 56 56 57 55 51 50 43 33 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 56 56 56 56 57 55 51 50 43 33 V (KT) LGEM 60 58 57 55 52 48 50 55 59 60 57 50 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 51 44 41 31 21 18 7 5 9 21 30 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 9 15 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 233 226 220 229 228 255 244 230 198 172 163 143 195 SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.0 23.2 19.9 15.4 8.8 8.5 8.9 POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 105 103 101 98 97 94 82 74 68 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 93 88 85 83 81 81 82 75 70 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -53.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -54.7 -56.0 -56.6 -56.1 -54.4 -52.6 -51.9 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.9 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.4 2.0 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 41 46 51 57 55 54 55 54 52 48 37 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 46 49 50 50 47 44 42 39 38 43 41 36 850 MB ENV VOR 115 152 170 179 190 189 189 167 157 238 266 253 230 200 MB DIV 79 117 71 -2 15 35 43 63 51 28 42 57 63 700-850 TADV -21 -15 -24 -9 -11 -1 1 -4 -2 -8 -23 -41 14 LAND (KM) 979 942 920 942 968 979 981 936 917 1006 1246 1404 1537 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.4 38.8 38.8 38.8 39.1 39.5 41.0 44.0 48.1 53.2 56.9 59.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 51.1 49.7 48.9 48.1 47.0 46.1 44.5 42.0 39.3 36.7 34.8 33.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 9 6 5 4 7 13 20 25 23 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 19 CX,CY: 17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -8. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. -2. -5. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -9. -10. -17. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.9 52.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.01 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 94.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 259.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 57 56 56 56 56 57 55 51 50 43 33 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 57 57 57 58 56 52 51 44 34 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 55 55 56 54 50 49 42 32 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 50 50 51 49 45 44 37 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT