* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 56 57 58 56 56 56 56 53 50 43 V (KT) LAND 60 57 56 56 57 58 56 56 56 56 53 50 43 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 56 55 53 48 46 50 56 59 58 53 47 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 50 45 41 30 19 11 7 6 1 12 28 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 5 -1 -1 -4 -1 -2 -3 8 16 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 235 231 231 219 230 237 269 240 232 203 149 144 186 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.4 24.3 23.8 22.2 18.0 13.7 9.7 8.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 109 105 103 98 97 96 90 77 70 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 92 87 86 81 80 82 79 72 67 64 62 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 -54.1 -55.3 -56.3 -56.6 -56.7 -54.6 -53.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 43 47 48 52 62 56 58 60 56 51 37 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 42 47 50 51 50 46 44 41 40 41 42 39 850 MB ENV VOR 87 117 148 165 175 173 196 185 152 190 258 262 220 200 MB DIV 61 64 94 72 8 47 35 41 61 47 23 57 41 700-850 TADV -10 -23 -11 -24 -9 -4 0 -1 8 10 -56 -36 -14 LAND (KM) 1067 996 944 946 952 981 988 953 924 952 1111 1273 1411 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.8 38.4 38.6 38.7 39.0 39.1 39.9 42.0 45.2 49.4 52.4 54.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 52.4 50.6 49.8 48.9 47.2 46.8 45.9 43.5 40.9 37.8 36.0 34.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 11 7 7 4 3 10 16 21 20 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 21 CX,CY: 19/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 10. 11. 8. 5. 1. -1. 0. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -7. -10. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.1 54.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.03 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 83.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 289.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 56 56 57 58 56 56 56 56 53 50 43 18HR AGO 60 59 58 58 59 60 58 58 58 58 55 52 45 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 57 58 56 56 56 56 53 50 43 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 52 50 50 50 50 47 44 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT