* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 57 56 58 59 57 55 56 56 59 58 52 V (KT) LAND 65 60 57 56 58 59 57 55 56 56 59 58 52 V (KT) LGEM 65 61 59 58 57 51 47 48 53 58 59 55 49 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 52 51 48 39 20 18 8 8 3 12 21 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 2 0 0 -5 2 -3 2 14 11 5 SHEAR DIR 233 232 233 232 221 247 250 281 253 250 182 166 200 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.8 24.5 24.0 23.3 21.3 16.6 13.6 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 112 109 107 102 99 96 94 86 74 70 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 99 96 92 90 84 82 81 80 77 69 67 65 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -55.0 -56.1 -56.7 -57.1 -55.4 -53.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 0.2 -0.2 0.3 2.1 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 41 44 44 45 57 59 59 57 58 53 33 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 43 47 51 52 48 45 44 42 45 46 43 850 MB ENV VOR 98 91 121 159 172 186 184 166 165 160 237 266 263 200 MB DIV 37 68 66 93 65 10 34 59 60 62 22 34 16 700-850 TADV -9 -15 -21 -12 -23 -6 -2 6 2 22 39 -35 -32 LAND (KM) 1072 1073 1011 976 952 981 987 962 948 915 967 1111 1336 LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.9 37.6 38.0 38.4 38.6 38.9 39.6 40.7 42.9 46.3 49.5 52.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 54.6 52.7 51.4 50.2 48.3 47.3 46.3 44.7 42.8 40.2 37.8 35.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 14 11 9 6 5 7 10 16 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 6. 10. 14. 11. 8. 6. 3. 6. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -9. -7. -6. -8. -10. -9. -9. -6. -7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.2 56.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.02 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 87.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 368.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 60 57 56 58 59 57 55 56 56 59 58 52 18HR AGO 65 64 61 60 62 63 61 59 60 60 63 62 56 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 62 63 61 59 60 60 63 62 56 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 58 56 54 55 55 58 57 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT