* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 55 52 52 52 53 50 50 51 54 55 45 V (KT) LAND 70 61 55 52 52 52 53 50 50 51 54 55 45 V (KT) LGEM 70 63 59 57 55 51 46 45 49 56 60 54 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 48 52 52 50 31 14 13 9 8 13 24 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 4 3 -1 0 0 -2 0 3 11 -4 SHEAR DIR 237 233 235 231 229 229 237 268 225 185 163 200 188 SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.1 23.1 19.8 16.6 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 112 111 110 104 100 98 97 94 81 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 97 94 93 87 83 81 82 82 73 68 65 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -54.6 -55.4 -56.1 -56.1 -55.8 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 42 43 41 43 50 58 56 55 55 52 39 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 39 43 47 51 50 46 43 41 42 44 37 850 MB ENV VOR 75 89 87 116 158 179 170 190 186 161 209 232 173 200 MB DIV 51 43 62 70 99 14 36 30 33 54 55 22 36 700-850 TADV -19 -14 -15 -26 -14 -10 -3 0 1 6 20 11 -13 LAND (KM) 1044 1048 1050 1011 973 928 968 1013 1018 955 942 1010 1149 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.4 37.2 37.6 38.0 38.8 38.9 38.8 39.2 40.9 44.1 46.7 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 56.7 54.5 53.1 51.7 49.4 47.8 46.9 45.9 44.3 41.6 39.5 37.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 16 12 11 8 5 4 7 15 17 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 16 CX,CY: 14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -21. -24. -28. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -19. -18. -15. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 14. 9. 5. 2. 3. 4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -20. -20. -19. -16. -15. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 35.6 58.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 86.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 419.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 61 55 52 52 52 53 50 50 51 54 55 45 18HR AGO 70 69 63 60 60 60 61 58 58 59 62 63 53 12HR AGO 70 67 66 63 63 63 64 61 61 62 65 66 56 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 60 61 58 58 59 62 63 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT