* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 58 54 51 51 51 50 48 51 51 55 47 V (KT) LAND 75 66 58 54 51 51 51 50 48 51 51 55 47 V (KT) LGEM 75 67 61 58 57 54 49 47 48 54 60 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 42 45 49 47 42 24 12 5 9 10 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 5 6 6 -1 0 -3 0 -2 0 18 18 SHEAR DIR 244 242 237 236 236 232 234 245 257 212 179 193 174 SST (C) 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.2 24.7 24.4 24.2 23.5 21.8 18.0 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 115 113 112 106 101 97 97 95 88 78 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 103 101 99 96 89 83 80 81 81 78 72 69 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 -54.8 -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -55.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 0.9 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 44 44 44 45 48 55 57 56 57 56 53 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 36 39 42 49 51 49 44 43 41 44 40 850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 84 86 108 166 183 183 185 180 161 209 218 200 MB DIV 60 41 41 56 83 57 6 39 52 39 42 9 30 700-850 TADV -7 -17 -8 -12 -10 -20 -7 -2 4 -3 14 34 -1 LAND (KM) 1048 1073 1074 1078 1002 952 971 989 995 970 998 1111 1340 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 35.7 36.3 37.0 37.7 38.5 38.8 39.0 39.2 40.3 42.1 45.1 49.0 LONG(DEG W) 60.2 58.2 56.2 54.2 52.2 49.7 48.0 47.0 46.4 44.9 42.3 38.8 34.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 14 9 5 3 5 10 17 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 18 CX,CY: 14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -15. -20. -22. -21. -18. -16. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 11. 14. 13. 6. 4. 0. 4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -21. -24. -24. -24. -25. -27. -24. -24. -20. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 35.0 60.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 75.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 467.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 66 58 54 51 51 51 50 48 51 51 55 47 18HR AGO 75 74 66 62 59 59 59 58 56 59 59 63 55 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 64 64 64 63 61 64 64 68 60 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 62 62 61 59 62 62 66 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT