* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 72 65 60 55 56 55 53 58 58 58 61 V (KT) LAND 90 80 72 65 60 55 56 55 53 58 58 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 90 81 75 69 66 61 56 51 51 56 62 62 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 42 44 47 49 49 32 19 12 5 13 14 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 6 5 7 0 -3 0 -1 -3 -3 3 9 SHEAR DIR 246 244 241 236 236 232 230 238 244 197 183 161 222 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.7 24.4 23.7 22.3 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 122 118 115 112 109 103 98 99 99 96 89 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 107 104 101 98 92 85 80 81 82 81 78 73 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -53.3 -53.0 -54.9 -55.6 -56.4 -55.9 -55.8 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 43 44 44 46 48 55 51 54 53 45 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 38 38 41 47 52 51 47 47 44 43 44 850 MB ENV VOR 54 64 77 89 86 149 176 171 174 175 180 188 198 200 MB DIV 72 44 50 52 58 87 20 29 3 30 41 38 9 700-850 TADV 6 -9 -16 -15 -14 -14 -10 1 0 1 1 10 15 LAND (KM) 1095 1063 1058 1063 1070 944 915 937 971 979 975 1033 1147 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.8 35.6 36.3 37.0 38.3 38.9 39.0 38.8 39.1 40.0 41.1 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 60.4 58.6 56.6 54.5 51.3 49.5 48.4 48.0 47.0 45.3 42.8 39.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 18 16 11 6 3 3 6 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -25. -33. -40. -46. -49. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -18. -24. -31. -32. -29. -26. -20. -15. -13. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 16. 16. 11. 10. 6. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -25. -30. -35. -34. -35. -37. -32. -32. -32. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 34.0 62.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 584.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 4( 16) 0( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 80 72 65 60 55 56 55 53 58 58 58 61 18HR AGO 90 89 81 74 69 64 65 64 62 67 67 67 70 12HR AGO 90 87 86 79 74 69 70 69 67 72 72 72 75 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 70 71 70 68 73 73 73 76 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 66 67 66 64 69 69 69 72 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT