* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 85 76 70 63 58 58 59 60 60 62 63 60 V (KT) LAND 95 85 76 70 63 58 58 59 60 60 62 63 60 V (KT) LGEM 95 86 80 74 70 64 59 53 50 53 58 61 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 44 46 44 46 48 43 19 6 5 6 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 6 7 6 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 236 245 243 239 235 234 234 220 263 257 220 176 164 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.2 23.5 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 122 119 115 111 105 99 98 99 97 94 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 108 105 101 95 87 81 81 81 81 81 77 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -54.3 -55.7 -56.4 -57.0 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 3.1 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 2 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 43 43 47 48 57 56 56 52 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 36 37 38 44 51 52 49 45 42 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR 50 53 71 75 99 114 189 204 206 202 171 137 133 200 MB DIV 81 63 41 47 71 80 51 17 15 26 0 23 29 700-850 TADV 14 6 -6 -17 -15 -18 -11 -3 -2 1 -4 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1124 1093 1031 1034 1035 978 881 867 934 954 932 905 944 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.0 34.9 35.7 36.5 37.9 39.0 39.4 39.0 39.0 39.5 40.5 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 62.5 61.0 58.9 56.8 52.7 50.5 49.3 48.5 47.9 47.2 45.8 43.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 17 19 18 14 7 4 3 3 5 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 16 CX,CY: 10/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -26. -35. -43. -50. -54. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -13. -20. -25. -33. -36. -32. -27. -20. -14. -11. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 19. 21. 18. 12. 8. 5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -25. -32. -37. -37. -36. -35. -35. -33. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 33.0 63.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 645.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 5( 21) 0( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 85 76 70 63 58 58 59 60 60 62 63 60 18HR AGO 95 94 85 79 72 67 67 68 69 69 71 72 69 12HR AGO 95 92 91 85 78 73 73 74 75 75 77 78 75 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 78 73 73 74 75 75 77 78 75 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 71 71 72 73 73 75 76 73 IN 6HR 95 85 76 70 67 65 65 66 67 67 69 70 67 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT