* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 94 83 73 58 57 58 56 54 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 110 104 94 83 73 58 57 58 56 54 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 110 106 99 91 84 73 65 57 50 50 55 61 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 33 42 44 46 51 44 34 18 8 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 9 6 8 5 0 -3 2 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 234 233 241 242 239 238 223 226 238 243 210 169 163 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.4 24.9 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.2 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 128 122 118 112 109 102 100 101 101 99 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 117 113 108 104 98 93 83 80 81 83 84 78 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.5 -51.5 -53.0 -54.5 -55.9 -56.1 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.7 3.0 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 0 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 45 44 45 46 47 50 52 51 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 36 38 39 42 50 54 50 45 43 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 58 50 50 72 66 97 168 206 219 226 212 162 144 200 MB DIV 73 75 58 43 56 66 102 18 25 9 8 13 28 700-850 TADV 12 13 8 0 -15 -7 -22 -2 -1 1 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1091 1167 1123 1065 1034 1057 947 909 939 963 995 932 823 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.7 33.7 34.7 35.7 37.0 38.3 39.0 38.8 38.6 38.5 39.5 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.1 63.7 62.3 60.6 58.9 54.8 51.1 49.3 49.0 48.9 48.2 47.2 45.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 16 12 4 1 2 4 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -23. -33. -45. -55. -64. -69. -71. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -14. -22. -29. -39. -43. -39. -33. -24. -15. -10. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 15. 20. 16. 9. 6. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -16. -27. -37. -52. -53. -52. -54. -56. -53. -51. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 31.6 65.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 702.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 16( 40) 4( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 104 94 83 73 58 57 58 56 54 57 59 60 18HR AGO 110 109 99 88 78 63 62 63 61 59 62 64 65 12HR AGO 110 107 106 95 85 70 69 70 68 66 69 71 72 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 90 75 74 75 73 71 74 76 77 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 76 75 76 74 72 75 77 78 IN 6HR 110 104 95 89 86 78 77 78 76 74 77 79 80 IN 12HR 110 104 94 85 79 75 74 75 73 71 74 76 77