* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 103 93 81 66 60 64 61 59 61 63 65 V (KT) LAND 115 112 103 93 81 66 60 64 61 59 61 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 109 100 92 78 69 62 54 50 54 60 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 34 41 43 48 51 48 22 9 6 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 6 8 7 5 1 -2 1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 230 230 226 237 239 234 233 227 218 263 255 189 167 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 132 128 122 114 110 106 104 103 102 101 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 116 113 108 100 94 87 84 83 83 83 76 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -54.5 -56.0 -56.0 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 50 50 47 45 44 44 48 43 48 50 53 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 34 36 36 40 45 53 51 47 45 44 41 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 51 46 65 92 112 176 195 193 180 165 127 200 MB DIV 54 64 73 68 57 87 67 98 4 10 18 9 29 700-850 TADV 14 10 11 9 1 -22 -11 -10 5 2 0 3 -3 LAND (KM) 1052 1073 1110 1099 1028 1015 966 914 937 943 911 848 762 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.7 32.8 33.9 34.9 36.6 38.0 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.8 39.5 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 65.3 64.3 62.7 61.1 57.1 53.4 51.1 50.4 50.1 50.1 49.6 48.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 17 18 17 13 6 2 1 3 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -9. -13. -23. -35. -47. -58. -67. -73. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -13. -21. -28. -39. -43. -41. -35. -25. -15. -10. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 23. 21. 15. 12. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -12. -22. -34. -49. -55. -51. -54. -56. -54. -52. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 30.6 66.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 733.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 25( 48) 8( 52) 3( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 103 93 81 66 60 64 61 59 61 63 65 18HR AGO 115 114 105 95 83 68 62 66 63 61 63 65 67 12HR AGO 115 112 111 101 89 74 68 72 69 67 69 71 73 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 93 78 72 76 73 71 73 75 77 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 81 75 79 76 74 76 78 80 IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 85 79 83 80 78 80 82 84 IN 12HR 115 112 103 94 88 84 78 82 79 77 79 81 83