* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 97 93 86 76 70 73 72 71 68 66 68 V (KT) LAND 100 101 97 93 86 76 70 73 72 71 68 66 68 V (KT) LGEM 100 103 101 96 91 80 72 64 56 52 52 57 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 29 31 42 48 52 39 24 15 8 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 4 8 6 4 4 5 0 0 3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 221 226 227 225 236 236 235 221 225 262 262 225 204 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.3 25.3 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 135 132 127 119 110 107 104 101 101 100 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 118 115 112 105 96 90 85 82 81 82 75 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -53.2 -54.8 -55.8 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.0 3.0 3.0 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 48 45 45 43 45 45 53 57 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 36 36 41 44 52 53 52 49 46 46 850 MB ENV VOR 79 67 66 58 50 75 103 170 183 182 177 155 138 200 MB DIV 77 60 68 77 53 53 74 92 12 26 9 11 35 700-850 TADV 18 17 11 9 7 -17 -9 -15 1 -1 0 0 9 LAND (KM) 1093 1071 1064 1128 1097 1007 963 879 888 902 894 835 743 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.7 31.8 32.8 33.8 35.7 37.7 38.8 38.9 38.9 39.0 39.6 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 65.9 65.3 64.1 62.9 59.5 55.4 52.4 50.7 50.0 49.9 49.7 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 18 16 10 5 2 2 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 6 4 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -22. -32. -41. -49. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -18. -27. -32. -32. -30. -24. -17. -13. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 22. 23. 22. 18. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -7. -14. -24. -30. -27. -28. -29. -32. -34. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 29.6 66.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 621.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 20( 38) 10( 44) 5( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 97 93 86 76 70 73 72 71 68 66 68 18HR AGO 100 99 95 91 84 74 68 71 70 69 66 64 66 12HR AGO 100 97 96 92 85 75 69 72 71 70 67 65 67 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 83 73 67 70 69 68 65 63 65 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 71 65 68 67 66 63 61 63 IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 78 72 75 74 73 70 68 70 IN 12HR 100 101 97 88 82 78 72 75 74 73 70 68 70