* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 93 91 82 77 77 80 76 74 73 73 V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 93 91 82 77 77 80 76 74 73 73 V (KT) LGEM 95 97 97 95 92 84 76 68 60 53 53 58 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 20 24 27 29 44 47 47 37 15 12 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 8 8 6 3 -1 -3 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 226 226 229 235 229 237 234 226 232 228 272 256 215 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.5 26.7 25.8 25.2 24.9 24.8 25.2 25.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 137 132 124 114 108 103 100 103 103 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 123 120 115 109 100 92 86 82 83 84 81 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -53.2 -54.4 -55.9 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.1 2.0 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 51 49 47 46 45 44 52 53 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 54 51 49 46 45 850 MB ENV VOR 86 85 69 65 54 57 95 135 179 181 180 165 155 200 MB DIV 78 74 62 61 73 52 107 75 51 16 5 39 43 700-850 TADV 13 17 18 14 10 1 -15 -18 -5 0 0 5 4 LAND (KM) 1048 1096 1064 1082 1118 1034 978 912 805 825 903 909 825 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.6 30.4 31.5 32.6 34.7 36.8 38.5 39.5 39.5 38.8 38.8 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.8 66.5 66.2 65.2 64.3 61.6 57.7 54.4 51.9 50.6 50.5 50.2 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 14 14 17 17 13 7 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 16 15 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -26. -34. -41. -46. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -24. -27. -27. -22. -17. -13. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 21. 28. 24. 21. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -4. -13. -18. -18. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.7 66.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 553.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 5.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 12( 41) 8( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 96 93 91 82 77 77 80 76 74 73 73 18HR AGO 95 94 94 91 89 80 75 75 78 74 72 71 71 12HR AGO 95 92 91 88 86 77 72 72 75 71 69 68 68 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 83 74 69 69 72 68 66 65 65 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 67 62 62 65 61 59 58 58 IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 74 69 69 72 68 66 65 65 IN 12HR 95 96 96 87 81 77 72 72 75 71 69 68 68