* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 90 91 90 84 82 80 81 77 71 67 70 V (KT) LAND 85 88 90 91 90 84 82 80 81 77 71 67 70 V (KT) LGEM 85 89 91 92 91 86 79 70 61 53 48 49 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 13 16 23 24 41 46 51 47 22 15 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 6 7 6 8 -1 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 231 223 220 229 233 232 232 231 222 219 260 228 231 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.2 25.3 25.0 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 140 136 129 118 109 105 99 98 96 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 125 122 119 114 104 94 89 82 80 77 77 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -53.7 -55.5 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.8 3.1 2.8 2.3 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 50 51 49 45 43 42 43 46 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 34 34 34 41 46 52 51 47 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 96 87 93 72 73 54 89 124 185 189 189 169 158 200 MB DIV 69 88 77 55 54 62 55 98 78 16 12 -7 14 700-850 TADV 7 12 15 19 14 6 -16 -9 -23 -6 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 971 1046 1084 1072 1075 1109 951 880 833 778 803 810 795 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.7 29.4 30.4 31.4 33.5 36.1 38.1 39.2 39.8 39.7 39.7 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 66.8 66.8 66.1 65.4 63.2 59.9 56.5 53.4 51.4 50.6 50.3 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 12 13 16 18 15 11 6 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 27 16 13 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -22. -19. -15. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 11. 18. 26. 24. 18. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. -1. -3. -5. -4. -8. -14. -18. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 28.0 66.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.09 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 486.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 17.0% 11.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 7.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.2% 8.5% 5.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 12( 30) 9( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 90 91 90 84 82 80 81 77 71 67 70 18HR AGO 85 84 86 87 86 80 78 76 77 73 67 63 66 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 81 75 73 71 72 68 62 58 61 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 68 66 64 65 61 55 51 54 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 58 56 57 53 47 43 46 IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 65 63 61 62 58 52 48 51 IN 12HR 85 88 90 81 75 71 69 67 68 64 58 54 57