* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 86 87 88 85 81 79 81 78 73 70 68 V (KT) LAND 80 83 86 87 88 85 81 79 81 78 73 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 87 88 89 86 80 72 63 54 47 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 15 21 24 32 48 50 48 36 19 11 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 2 4 8 7 7 2 -2 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 260 232 225 221 223 224 231 229 224 222 218 218 160 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.6 26.7 25.8 24.7 24.2 23.9 24.1 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 145 143 133 124 114 104 98 93 94 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 126 124 123 117 109 100 89 82 76 77 81 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -53.3 -55.7 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.8 3.5 2.0 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 50 48 49 47 41 42 39 44 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 30 32 33 35 39 43 50 52 49 46 43 850 MB ENV VOR 88 89 87 88 69 63 67 106 150 187 184 183 170 200 MB DIV 41 72 86 84 61 81 57 111 71 39 6 -6 0 700-850 TADV 9 8 13 16 20 13 0 -18 -20 -10 -4 13 0 LAND (KM) 926 981 1036 1062 1024 1069 980 891 825 711 706 731 784 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.6 30.4 32.5 35.1 37.4 39.3 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 64.9 62.0 58.6 55.1 52.8 51.9 51.7 51.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 11 15 18 17 13 7 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 33 27 19 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -21. -23. -21. -19. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 24. 26. 21. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 5. 1. -1. 1. -2. -7. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 27.6 67.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.83 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.15 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 460.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 17.9% 12.4% 11.8% 9.8% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 8.0% 4.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.6% 9.2% 5.7% 4.6% 3.3% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 11( 26) 10( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 86 87 88 85 81 79 81 78 73 70 68 18HR AGO 80 79 82 83 84 81 77 75 77 74 69 66 64 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 78 75 71 69 71 68 63 60 58 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 68 64 62 64 61 56 53 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 62 58 56 58 55 50 47 45 IN 12HR 80 83 86 77 71 67 63 61 63 60 55 52 50