* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 86 88 89 85 87 85 85 79 72 68 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 86 88 89 85 87 85 85 79 72 68 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 88 90 90 86 79 70 60 51 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 13 18 25 43 46 46 36 24 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 0 3 5 6 2 6 1 -8 3 0 SHEAR DIR 245 257 226 216 218 231 224 228 215 213 218 233 236 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.1 25.2 24.3 23.4 23.0 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 146 143 138 129 117 109 99 91 87 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 126 125 123 120 113 103 94 84 76 72 73 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -52.2 -54.8 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.3 3.8 3.1 2.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 51 50 50 47 45 41 45 48 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 31 30 32 35 37 44 49 54 52 48 45 850 MB ENV VOR 98 85 87 85 88 70 70 101 144 182 183 171 142 200 MB DIV 39 42 67 90 77 55 68 86 94 56 15 1 -20 700-850 TADV 8 10 9 12 13 15 6 -19 -21 -11 -1 1 2 LAND (KM) 912 944 978 1061 1070 1044 1033 882 794 726 633 611 622 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.9 29.6 31.5 34.1 36.5 38.7 40.2 41.0 41.2 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.8 67.0 66.9 66.8 65.7 63.6 60.6 57.2 54.7 53.4 52.8 53.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 8 9 13 16 17 15 9 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 38 31 26 11 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -15. -17. -17. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 16. 21. 27. 25. 19. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 10. 12. 10. 10. 4. -3. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 27.3 66.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.71 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.83 4.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.19 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 416.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 21.4% 31.9% 25.2% 19.3% 18.3% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 13.6% 7.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 33.0% 5.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.6% 16.9% 11.2% 7.8% 6.4% 3.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 11( 23) 11( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 84 86 88 89 85 87 85 85 79 72 68 18HR AGO 75 74 78 80 82 83 79 81 79 79 73 66 62 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 75 76 72 74 72 72 66 59 55 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 68 64 66 64 64 58 51 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 84 75 69 65 61 63 61 61 55 48 44