* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 81 85 87 89 89 91 92 91 84 77 72 V (KT) LAND 70 76 81 85 87 89 89 91 92 91 84 77 72 V (KT) LGEM 70 78 84 88 91 92 86 81 75 65 54 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 9 14 15 28 34 43 49 48 27 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 1 3 4 3 6 0 -5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 259 236 244 230 211 223 221 232 223 221 219 238 198 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.5 26.7 25.7 24.6 23.7 22.5 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 147 146 138 132 123 113 103 95 85 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 125 125 125 119 115 108 98 88 80 72 68 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -53.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.8 3.6 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 52 50 49 50 49 47 44 46 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 28 28 32 34 40 46 52 51 47 43 850 MB ENV VOR 94 90 76 77 75 62 52 65 138 168 192 182 161 200 MB DIV 34 23 31 51 83 72 72 72 131 65 11 22 -4 700-850 TADV 6 6 7 7 11 19 13 15 -9 -11 -6 0 2 LAND (KM) 920 939 960 1026 1076 1015 1055 930 832 726 646 566 555 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.6 29.2 31.1 33.1 35.5 37.8 39.7 40.9 41.6 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.6 66.9 67.0 67.1 66.3 64.8 62.3 59.1 56.4 54.3 53.3 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 8 11 14 17 16 12 8 3 0 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 39 34 30 13 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -18. -17. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 6. 9. 16. 24. 31. 29. 24. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 21. 22. 21. 14. 7. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.3 66.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.73 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 4.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.24 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 380.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 33.8% 28.0% 22.5% 19.2% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 12.8% 18.5% 11.6% 6.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 30.2% 6.3% 3.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 22.2% 19.6% 14.2% 9.9% 6.8% 4.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/11/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 10( 21) 11( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 76 81 85 87 89 89 91 92 91 84 77 72 18HR AGO 70 69 74 78 80 82 82 84 85 84 77 70 65 12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 72 74 74 76 77 76 69 62 57 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 64 64 66 67 66 59 52 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT